← Grand Archive PTM Regionals at Gamers Guild North Phoenix
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Grand Archive PTM Regionals at Gamers Guild North Phoenix
decks
3
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
5-9-3
overall winrate
38.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.1%
avg ELO -1.5 per match
expected value
47.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1180
· median 1183
· range 1094–1262
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1046
Q1 1172
Q3 1481
1632
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 10.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.8% | +5.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 4.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.1% | +6.1 |
| Water Fractal | 4.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.0% | -9.6 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.3 |
| Fire Suited | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Water Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
